Estimate uncertainty and test assumptions

Estimate uncertain quantities or examine how analytical choices affect results.

Suggested resources

Method toolkit R

fermi

Estimate a quantity by breaking it into smaller uncertain components and simulating possible outcomes.

Define the component distributions and how they combine. Results depend on your assumptions; they are probabilistic estimates rather than observed totals.

Not geography-specific
In development

Method toolkit R

specr (Humaniverse fork)

Test how theoretically plausible analytical choices affect statistical results using specification curves.

This is Humaniverse’s fork of specr; the linked documentation describes the upstream methods. Choose defensible specifications. A specification curve does not make an estimate more valid or generalisable.

Not geography-specific
Status not documented

App / Method toolkit R, Shiny, specr

shinyspecr

Interactively explore a specification curve, its analytical choices and the individual models behind it.

Requires a specr result object and local R/Shiny dependencies. Supplying the original dataset enables model refitting. No hosted app is documented.

Not geography-specific
In development

Using these resources

Choose the method that matches the uncertainty you want to examine. Use fermi for uncertain input quantities, or specr and shinyspecr for analytical choices in statistical models. A specr result can be passed to shinyspecr; other combinations are not an implied pipeline. Record the assumptions tested and the uncertainties that remain outside the analysis.

Supporting resources

App / Method toolkit R, Shiny

shinycoin

For a composite index built with COINr, explore sensitivity to weights, normalisation and aggregation within shinycoin.

Requires a local R/Shiny setup. This is index-specific sensitivity analysis, separate from the statistical specification curves supported by specr.

Your own data
Status not documented