Estimate a quantity by breaking it into smaller uncertain components and simulating possible outcomes.
Define the component distributions and how they combine. Results depend on your assumptions; they are probabilistic estimates rather than observed totals.
Test how theoretically plausible analytical choices affect statistical results using specification curves.
This is Humaniverse’s fork of specr; the linked documentation describes the upstream methods. Choose defensible specifications. A specification curve does not make an estimate more valid or generalisable.
Choose the method that matches the uncertainty you want to examine. Use fermi for uncertain input quantities, or specr and shinyspecr for analytical choices in statistical models. A specr result can be passed to shinyspecr; other combinations are not an implied pipeline. Record the assumptions tested and the uncertainties that remain outside the analysis.